What are the scenarios that can occur during the ongoing conflict.
We have seen an increase in raw materials even before the events involving Russia and Ukraine, increases that have led to an up trend in oil and consequently in the PX and PTA.
In addition to this, there continue to be significant logistical problems.
Also for road transport, the increase in diesel fuel has led to increases in the entire sector, and we have also seen increases in THC in the various ports.
If this was the scenario before dawn on February 24, 2022, we can well imagine what awaits us in the next two months: first an increase in prices and then a lack of availability of the material; two factors that together strengthen the dynamics of prices and, as already mentioned, the main problem that will be the availability of material.
After the Chinese New Year we had seen a recovery in demand and this gave us hope, so the market had digested the increases related to raw materials and the European market, specifically, had accepted the increases related to the increase in energy costs that we can indicatively estimate at around 70 euros per ton.
Europe has contained these dynamics of prices well, without undergoing particular fluctuations, vice versa Asia continues to struggle with the uncertainty of raw materials and transport.
Numerous of breakbulk ships with 8/10 thousand tons are arriving in European ports bypassing the container problem, but if not properly managed, they can risk becoming extremely expensive.
The situation must be monitored day by day but the tensions do not bring serenity between price and availability.